US GDP REVISIONS MEAN FASTER CONSUMER DELEVERAGING AND LOW INFLATION

The U.S. economy increased 2.4% in the second quarter, slightly below market expectations. Q2 delivered slower
GDP growth compared to Q1 but with a marked acceleration in real domestic demand from 1.3% to 4.1%. We prefer to see a weaker GDP growth due to a rise in imports with strong domestic demand than a weaker GDP growth due to a weaker domestic demand.

That said, what was more striking in today’s report was the BEA’s annual revisions to the National Income and
Product Accounts. The level of real GDP in the first quarter of 2010 was revised down by $100 billion. From a
component perspective, consumption registered the largest revisions in dollar terms with a decrease of $134
billion. Accordingly, U.S. consumption is not in an expansion mode as originally reported but rather still in the recovery stance.

There are mainly two consequences with the BEA’s revisions. First, it means that the savings rate probably was higher than first thought and job creation is more than ever needed to sustain consumption growth (conversely it means that the U.S. consumer is deleveraging more quickly than expected). Secondly, the U.S. output gap is deeper in excess supply territory than before the BEA’s revision. Bottom line: The fed is on the sidelines for a longer period of time.

image

National Bank Financial Group

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, CONSUMER, ECONOMY, INFLATION/DEFLATION, US consumer, US economy | Leave a comment

Q2 EARNINGS UPDATE

David Rosenberg sings his own song. He does not sound very good:

Over half the S&P 500 have reported (304 to be precise) and so far the season has been rather jolly with 75% beating bottom-line estimates and even 63% doing likewise on the revenue line – both above average (of 70% and 60%, respectively in recent quarters). It now looks like EPS growth is going to test +50% YoY, which is impressive indeed. Companies are retaining more than 10% of their profits (post all operating costs), which is good news for bondholders, that is for sure. So why isn’t the equity market reacting better? A few reasons:

First, a lot of this good news was already priced in to begin with.

Strange statement after equities declined 15% peak to trough between April and July.

Second, the second quarter is a bit like ancient history right now – guidance has not been that good with three companies providing downbeat assessments for the coming quarter for every one that had something positive to say about the near-term outlook. Over the long-term, that negative-positive ratio is generally closer to two-to-one than three-to-one.

Other data services have a more positive guidance count. Let’s wait after next week to have the final count on guidance. Nevertheless, David is always advocating using trailing earnings. Now that they are stronger than he expected, using them in equity valuation is backward looking!

Third, analysts have stopped raising their estimates for the year – in fact, for every one that is doing so there is another one who is cutting forecasts. The future is muddled despite the nice things we see through the rear-view mirror, which is why the equity market has been in this tug-of-war lately. When the market was strengthening to the April highs, one of the catalysts at the time was that analysts were coming out of the Q1 reporting season at that time upgrading their EPS estimates three times faster than they were cutting forecasts

Analysts take a little time before adjusting their estimates after earnings season. Let’s see how things evolve in the next 2 weeks.

Fourth, while revenues have been above expected, they are running at about one-fifth the pace of profit growth and as a result margins are hitting new highs. What happens when they begin to compress (especially with 80% of the incoming economic data disappointing over the past month)?

For most of the year to date, David was worried about revenue growth. Revenues are better than expected which, with improved productivity, results in better margins, and now he complains about the risk of future margin compression.

Fifth, with the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus behind us, we can see what the economy looks like – back-to-back declines in retail sales, durable goods orders and shipments, and household employment. Not to mention consumer and producer prices. The era of consumer frugality never went away even in a flashy bear market rally
any more than it did just because the stock market bounced back 50% temporarily in 1930 (does anyone recall the great rally of 1930 or does that particular year invoke memories of shared sacrifice?).

Fifth and only solid point on that list. Economic uncertainty keeps investors cautious. A few positive stats and cheap stocks will draw them back quickly. Otherwise, equities will probably mark time around current levels. The risk is September/October …

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***EARNINGS WATCH, EARNINGS, EQUITIES, US equities | Leave a comment

RAIL FREIGHT REMAINS SOLID

Freight volumes for North American railroads have held on quite well since March. Total carloads for July, at 747,332, were still above the first and second quarter averages of 707,229 and 740,327, respectively. On a QTD basis, carloads are up an average of 11%.

Grain shipments have declined considerably since March. Metallic Ores, Metals and Product, and Motor Vehicles and Equipment remain quite solid. Intermodal is particularly strong reflecting continued inventory replenishment. Overall, rail freight does not point to a double dip.

imageimage

imageimage

image

Charts from RBC Capital Markets

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, TRANSPORTATION, US economy | Leave a comment

US Q2 GDP AND REVISIONS CHARTED

Via Econompicdata whose charts sum it all up so well:

Bloomberg details:

Growth in the U.S. slowed to a 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than forecast, reflecting a larger trade deficit and cooler consumer spending.
The increase in gross domestic product compared with a median forecast of 2.6 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and follows an upwardly revised 3.7 percent pace in the first quarter that showed a jump in inventories, according to figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Business investment climbed at the fastest rate since 1997.

Changes to Q1 were extremely broad since the numbers went "final" a month back, GDP jumped a full point from 3.7% to 2.7% due to a large jump in non-residential investment and a huge spike in inventory build (the question is who will be buying) offset by a rather large drop in service consumption.

Past quarters have been revised down. Per Calculated Risk:

The recession was worse in 2008 than originally estimated.Q1 2010 was revised up, but Q3 and Q4 2009 were revised down. So the recovery is a little weaker than originally estimated.

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ECONOMY, US economy | Leave a comment

CHICAGO PMI REBOUNDS IN JULY

Surprise! Chicago purchasers report wide, deep strength during July. The Chicago PMI rose to 62.3, a level right at the top of the recovery and indicating very strong, if not robust, month-to-month growth.

New orders jumped 5-1/2 points to 64.6, backlog orders shot up nearly seven points to 57.6.  The employment index rose nearly 2-1/2 points to 56.6, well above break-even 50 to indicate hiring in the month.

image image

Full Chicago ISM release

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***RECOVERY WATCH, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, MANUFACTURING, US Employment, US economy | Leave a comment

QUICK READS

Global Cellphone Shipments Rise Global shipments of mobile phones continued to grow in the second quarter, but vendors’ profit margins could be threatened by high-end price pressure
IMF: U.S. Financial System Still at Risk The IMF says the U.S. financial system is "slowly recovering," but remains vulnerable to crisis, in part because Congress and the administration have failed to streamline a regulatory system marked by turf battles and overlapping responsibilities.
Jobless Claims Fall Initial jobless claims declined by 11,000 to 457,000 last week, but that followed a big rise the previous period, signaling little improvement in the job market.
More Record Lows for Mortgages U.S. mortgage rates fell again, with the average rate on 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages furthering record lows.
U.K. Consumer Confidence Slumps Consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level in 11 months in July, raising fears the economy could fall back into recession, a monthly survey released by polling firm GfK NOP showed.
Germany Regains Jobs Lost in Recession German unemployment fell for the 13th straight month, putting Europe’s largest economy on the brink of a milestone: regaining all of the jobs lost during the recession earlier than expected.
Signs of slowdown in Japanese recovery Unemployment figure rises unexpectedly
Within the Fed, Worries of Deflation— A Fed member warned that the agency’s current policies put the United States economy at risk of “Japanese-style” deflation.

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

EARNINGS WATCH

The latest crop of quarterly earnings shows global industry in rude health. Germany’s Siemens, heralding its “best result of all times” displayed an industrial order book up by almost a third. Operating profit more than doubled at earth moversCaterpillar of the US and Komatsu of Japan. Germans are moaning about a dearth of engineers; Boeing grumbles about capacity constraints. (FT)
Oil Prices Lift Total’s Profit French oil major Total posted a 43% increase in second-quarter net profit, boosted by stronger production, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar.
Demand Rebound Drives Michelin to Profit French tire maker Michelin said it swung to profit in the first half of 2010 as demand rebounded on a recovery in the auto industry.
Alcatel-Lucent Sticks to Forecast Telecommunications-equipment maker Alcatel-Lucent reported a second-quarter net loss on Friday, but confirmed its full-year forecast.
MetLife Swings to Better-Than-Expected Profit MetLife reversed to a better-than-expected profit in the second quarter after large investment losses the prior year, though core revenue at the biggest U.S. life insurer fell short of views.
Samsung Posts Record Numbers on Strong Chip Sales The world’s top maker of memory chips and flat screen televisions reported a $4.23 billion profit from April to June, aided by strong sales of both of its key products.
Honda profit soars to record Japanese auto maker posts 36-fold increase in earnings; raises full-year forecast
Merck (MRK): Q2 EPS of $0.86 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $11.34B (+92.3%) vs. $11.45B.
Simon Property Group (SPG): Q2 EPS of $1.38 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $933M (+3.3%) vs. $917M.
  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***EARNINGS WATCH | Leave a comment

What Congress Might Do to Defuse Tax Time Bomb

President George W. Bush left behind a ticking time bomb that is set for Dec. 31, 2010. If Congress does nothing, taxes on wages, capital gains and dividends will leap, the estate tax will be resurrected at a 55% rate and the pesky alternative minimum tax will hit an additional 21 million taxpayers on 2010 returns.

Neither Democrats nor Republicans have an interest in letting that happen. Doing nothing would, Goldman Sachs economists estimate, amount to a tax increase equal to 2.5% of gross domestic product, the value of goods and services produced each year. But what Congress will do and when…well, as one official puts it, this has become a gigantic Rubik’s cube that everyone is twisting at the same time.(..)

The smart money in Washington says nothing gets done before a postelection lame-duck session.

Given the distressingly sluggish economy recovery, few see this as a propitious moment to raise taxes on anyone. But given the pressure to do something to reduce the budget deficit and the political appeal to Democrats of socking it to the rich, the argument is over how much damage raising upper-bracket taxes would do.

(…) fewer small businesses would be hit than the rhetoric implies. The congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that only 3% of taxpayers who show business income on their returns would be touched by the Obama tax increase, though these 750,000 taxpayers account for half of the $1 trillion in business income reported on personal tax returns.

And then there’s the deficit. Raising taxes on the over-$250,000 crowd isn’t going to cure it. The price tag on the Obama-backed extension of Mr. Bush’s middle-class tax cuts and stopping the alternative minimum tax from reaching down into the middle class is $2.5 trillion over 10 years, the Joint Tax Committee says. Unofficial estimates circulating on Capitol Hill say that’s about 85% of the price tag for extending all the Bush tax cuts.

The administration argues that symbolism matters as much as dollars. It’ll be hard for the U.S. government to persuade anyone that it takes the long-term deficit seriously if it won’t even let a tax cut on the best-off Americans expire on schedule. Though he doesn’t say so explicitly, Mr. Obama knows he is unlikely to wrestle down the deficit without also raising taxes on folks making less than $250,000 at some point.

So what happens? Political gridlock, wavering Senate Democrats, deficit angst and a gnawing sense that the tax code is due for an overhaul could combine to make a one- or two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts—perhaps all of them, perhaps only those Mr. Obama likes—likely.

This could tee up a massive tax and deficit package after the 2012 presidential elections. But one problem with that politically expedient solution: It would exacerbate the already overwhelming uncertainty hanging over the economy and discouraging business hiring and investment.

Full WSJ article

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ECONOMY, TAXES, US economy | Leave a comment

HOUSING WATCH: FLORIDA UPDATE

Florida existing single-family home sales improved 15% y/y in June, decelerating relative to May’s 18% y/y increase. Despite a positive tailwind from the homebuyer tax credit, y/y gains in single-family sales (representing closings) have moderated since April. Positively, though, it appears that the tax credit has spurred enough sales to help reduce listed inventory levels across several key metro areas. Nevertheless, given the unusually sharp drop-off in demand witnessed nationally following the tax credit (extending through June), we remain concerned about the potential for further price declines in 2H10.

New patterns emerging. Recall that, throughout much of 2009, the South Florida market was characterized by sharp y/y sales increases coupled with steep median price declines, while the North Florida market witnessed weaker y/y sales comps and very moderate price declines. Interestingly, we are beginning to see these patterns reverse as the growth in North Florida sales (+20% y/y) meaningfully outpaced South Florida sales (+5% y/y). For the most part, median prices are still down on a y/y basis in North Florida; however, median prices are now up y/y in several South Florida markets (e.g., Naples, Fort Lauderdale, and Fort Myers). We caution, however, that uncertainty surrounding the oil spill has sidelined many buyers in Northwest Florida and along the Gulf coast. Notably, June pending sales across parts of the Panhandle are down ~40% y/y, while pending sales in Miami-Dade and Orlando are up 30-35% y/y.

Median price decreased 3% y/y in June, deteriorating relative to May (-2% y/y) and April (+1% y/y). While we have seen several signs of home price stabilization across Florida’s major markets, we remain concerned that Florida’s large backlog of foreclosures and high unemployment rate (11.4%) could result in additional pricing pressure, especially if the pace of real estate owned (REO) liquidation begins to accelerate.

Florida has the highest mortgage "non-current" rate in the country, with 25.3% of all mortgages statewide in some form of delinquency or foreclosure as of March 31, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Furthermore, roughly 2.2 million Florida mortgages were "underwater" as of March 31 (48% of all Florida mortgages), according to First American Core Logic. Unfortunately, we believe these troubling conditions are likely to remain an obstacle, hampering meaningful home price appreciation for the foreseeable future.

Florida condominium sales rose 33% y/y to 6,916 units in June, decelerating relative to May’s 40% y/y increase.Among the major condo markets, sales in West Palm Beach increased 42%, Tampa sales increased 36%, and Fort Lauderdale sales rose 8% y/y. Miami sales, which have been volatile, increased 33% y/y. Statewide median condo prices declined 16% y/y in June (compared to down 13% y/y in May) to $95,000. Among core condo markets, prices in Ft. Lauderdale fell 6% y/y, Miami prices declined 9% y/y, West Palm Beach prices declined 19% y/y, and Tampa prices slid 13% y/y.

Listings are still falling, according to the most recent MLS inventory data available from key Florida markets. We believe two factors are at work here: 1) the pervasive negative equity situation and weak labor market are discouraging many traditional listings and 2) the decline, at least temporarily, of listed REO inventory as lenders seem to be delaying thousands of foreclosure liquidations that continue to build in the distressed inventory pipeline. Notably, though, the non-seasonally adjusted month’s supply in Tampa (6.5) and Orlando (5.8) are below the national average (7.1).

MLS listings are not capturing the level of "shadow supply" overhanging the market, in our view, particularly in Florida.Even assuming a 50% workout rate on Florida’s active foreclosures and seriously delinquent loans (825,000 mortgages altogether, based on 1Q data from the Mortgage Bankers Association), implicitly, we estimate there is a 17-month backlog of distressed inventory statewide, before factoring in current bank-owned inventory.

Raymond James & Associates

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***HOUSING WATCH, HOUSING, US housing | Leave a comment

CHINA EARLY WARNING INDICATOR

China’s NBS publishes a monthly scoreboard of 10 important economic statistics. The color system gives a dynamic view of the evolution of the Chinese economy. The June indicator declined from 110 to 106.7 indicating that the economy is slowing into a more stable state after reaching “partial heat” levels (117) in December 2009 and January 2010. I will update this regularly on the CHINA WARNING INDICATOR tab below the blog header.

image

Only retail sales and foreign trade are partially heating, a good thing at this time, while other sectors of the economy are showing stability.

The chart plots the Early Warning Index since 1994. Red characters indicate the “overheating” range, yellow is “increasing”, green “stable”, teal “decreasing” and blue “overcooling”. The indicator is currently declining in the stable range. Tight economic measures seem less warranted.

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CHINA WATCH, China economy, ECONOMY, LEADING ECON. INDIC. | Leave a comment

CHINA WANTS TO PEG WAGES TO INFLATION

The Communist Party seems focused on addressing rising income inequalities in China. The China Daily article reports on the huge discrepancies between working for State-owned entities and private companies. The Economic Observer next discusses measures taken by the Government to reduce the wealth flowing to governments and state-owned enterprises, especially the central government and those centrally-owned enterprises (COE). (My emphasis)

Wages to be pegged to CPI in new regulation

China is expected to approve a wage regulation by the end of this year in a major effort to improve workers’ lives and narrow the income gap.

Yin Chengji, spokesman of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said the regulation has been drafted since 2008 and will soon be submitted to the State Council, China’s cabinet, for approval, the China Business News reported on Wednesday.

In line with the draft regulation, the wage increase in the country will be pegged to the consumer price index (CPI), the report said.

Yang Yongqi, a labor law specialist at the China Institute for Labor and Social Security Sciences, under the ministry, said the regulation demands each province to submit its minimum wage guidelines to the central government, as well as to make them available to the public.

It clearly stipulates that overtime pay and subsidies, should not be included in calculating the minimum wage, China Business News quoted Yang as saying.

More than 23 provinces and cities increased their local minimum wages, but some enterprises have extended work time, Yang said.

The draft also said that wages should be increased in accordance with changes in the local CPI.

Employees, especially those at the senior management level in State-owned monopolies, will have their pay capped, according to the draft.

In China, the average monthly salary of employees at State-owned monopolies, such as telecommunications and natural resources, can be triple that of those who work in the private sector. If benefits like housing are included in the equation, their actual income is five to 10 times higher than that of ordinary workers.

The widening gap in pay has resulted in public outrage and driven millions of college graduates to seek jobs at State-owned monopolies, where employees are assured better healthcare insurance and a more stable income.

He Li, a senior lawyer at the Beijing-based Yingke Law Firm, said the new regulation will be the first national regulation to specifically focus on wages.

While China is globally considered to be a strong economic growth engine, a survey conducted by the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU) earlier this year showed that 23.4 percent of employees have not received a rise in salary in over five years and that 75.2 percent of those surveyed said they believe the current income distribution system is unfair.

The ACFTU also warned that the low pay, long hours and poor working conditions, faced by millions of workers are a source of conflict with the potential to trigger mass incidents, which would pose a threat to social stability.

Focus of Income Distribution Reform Shifts to Reducing Flow of Wealth to Government

To reduce social conflicts, ensure social fairness and pursue sustainable economic development, the Chinese government has expressed its intention to reform income distribution among all members of society and has assigned three study groups to conduct investigations nationwide.

According to the reform projects, the focus of the reform has shifted to reducing the wealth flowing to governments and state-owned enterprises, especially the central government and those centrally-owned enterprises (COE).

Sources from the Financial and Economic Committee (FEC) of the National People’s Congress and the China Democratic League (CDL) told an EO reporter, it is hoped that the reform plan will be drafted in July and completed at the end of this year. (…)

The FEC is most concerned with the income distribution among governments, enterprises and employees. They want to find out what governments can do to readjust income distribution, where the wealth of enterprises has gone, and what kind of relationship exists between the profit growth of an enterprise and its employee salaries.(…)

The provincial government said that the total national income must grow big enough to be equally distributed. The investigation group disagreed, however, arguing that, without a good distribution mechanism, a larger national income would actually be more difficult to distribute.(…)

Statistics from the NDRC show China’s GDP has grown by an average annual rate of 9.9 percent over the past thirty years while the proportion of workers income as that of total national income has dropped by 13 percentage points since 1995.

The greater proportion of this increased wealth has flowed to governments and state-owned enterprises.

The CDL found the profitability of some private enterprises in Guangdong to be only between 3 and 5 percent which may explain their reluctance to raise the salaries of employees. In response, the CDL recommended that the business revenue tax and other taxes be reduced to leave more profit for enterprises.

Both study groups believe this is a key to solving the issue, in addition to addressing the huge profits of SOEs.

A researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Economics Research Institute, suggested to the FEC study group that the ratio of profits of state-owned enterprises given to the central government to their total profit should be raised and the income of the state-owned enterprise employees should be mainly made up of their salaries. This would not only help narrow the income gap between employees of state-owned enterprises and that of private enterprises, but would also shrink the salary gap between high-level executives and ordinary employees of state-owned enterprises.

Another focus of the reform is to adjust the distribution ratios of the revenue of the central government and that of local governments.

The CDL study group found that 60 to 70 percent of the revenue of local governments is taken by the central government which explains the reluctance of local governments to address the issue.

Therefore, members of both the FEC and CDL have advised the central government to allow local governments to keep revenue gained from the real estate tax, value added tax and consumption tax.

According to a member of the CDL, the central government should also raise the threshold of personal income tax as China bears one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world. The study shows that the Chinese middle-class has to pay 30 percent of their income to governments.

The NDRC proposed reform for income distribution in 2006, but no improvements were made because the income distribution reform affected the interests of too many people and was thus too difficult to undertake.

The core of the project drafted by the NDRC in 2006 was to control the earnings of high-income people, expand the income of mid-income people and raise the earnings of low-income people. However, these are no longer the keys aspects of income distribution reform.

The FEC and China Democratic League are experiencing fewer obstacles now as the central government pushes forward reform that ensures social fairness, stimulates domestic demand and shifts the growth model of the economy.

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in China consumer, China employment | Leave a comment

CHINA INDUSTRIAL AND POWER OUTPUT SLOW DOWN

China’s industrial output is facing various impacts from the government’s efforts to reduce energy consumption and pollution, regulate local financing platforms, and measures for cooling the property market. In June, value-added output from large scale industries increased 13.7 percent from the same period last year, down 2.8 percentage points from May. At the same time, total power consumption and power production had slower growth. Due to the decrease of industrial power demand and the large basis late last year, the year-on-year growth of China’s power production and consumption are expected to continue slowing in the short term.

China’s industrial value-added output (at comparable prices) and monthly growth of power output since June 2007

Caixin

  • Share/Bookmark
Posted in ***CHINA WATCH, COMMODITIES, China economy, ECONOMY | Leave a comment